Forecasting Rainfall in Planting Onion Crops in Brebes District, Brebes District Using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing

##plugins.themes.academic_pro.article.main##

Nufus Mar'Atu Sholikhah Wasirudin
Dimara Kusuma Hakim

Abstract

Planting shallots is very dependent on rainfall. High rainfall when planting shallots can result in shallot plants not growing well, resulting in reduced selling value at harvest time and low rainfall. Therefore, this study aims to determine the rainfall forecasting process for planting shallot plants in Brebes District, Brebes Regency. The data used in rainfall forecasting is monthly data in Brebes District from January 2019 to December 2023 using the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing method. Data sourced from NASA's Power Data Access Viewer. In the surface data, get the MAPE value0.05241. Earth Skin Temperature data gets a MAPE value of 2.34346. Wind Speed data gets a MAPE value of 14.5396. DataPrecipitationgot a value of 138.829583. These findings contribute to further understanding regarding rainfall forecasting in shallot planting, which can support the planting process so that the harvest is good and produces high selling value.

##plugins.themes.academic_pro.article.details##

How to Cite
Nufus Mar’Atu Sholikhah Wasirudin, & Dimara Kusuma Hakim. (2024). Forecasting Rainfall in Planting Onion Crops in Brebes District, Brebes District Using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing. Jurnal E-Komtek (Elektro-Komputer-Teknik), 8(1), 22-30. https://doi.org/10.37339/e-komtek.v8i1.1746

References

[1] Jasmi, E. Sulistyaningsih, and D. Indradewa, "The Effect of Bulb Vernalization on the Growth, Yield, and Flowering of Shallots (Allium cepa L. Aggregatum group) in the Lowlands,"J. Agricultural Sciences., vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 42–57, 2013.
[2] B. Research and T. Vegetables, Shallot Cultivation.
[3] M. Fertilizer, "Risk analysis of shallot farming production in the dry season and rainy season in Brebes Regency," vol. 3, pp. 840–852, 2019.
[4] M. Department et al., "RED ONION PRODUCTIVITY IN PROBOLINGGO DISTRICT, EAST JAVA," pp. 173–183, 2018.
[5] U.-UN 6 T. 2011 concerning Immigration, “No Title,” Phys. Rev. E, p. 24, 2011.
[6] Tri Andri Hutapea and Andre Yoel Siahaan, "Rainfall Forecasting Using the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Method in North Padang Lawas Regency," J. Student Res., vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 378–393, 2023, doi: 10.55606/jsr.v1i2.1046.
[7] Adindach Syadza Rizkia, Ami Mulya Pratiwi, Edy Widodo, and Wulan Maghfirotul Fauziah, "Application of the Triple Exponential Smoothing Method for Forecasting Rainfall in the City of Bogor," J. MSA ( Mat. and Stat. and Appl., vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 01–05, 2023, doi: 10.24252/MSA.v11i1.28281.
[8] A. Aryati and I. Purnamasari, "Forecasting using the method of Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing (Case Study: Number of Foreign Tourists Visiting Indonesia) Forecasting using the method of Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing (Case Study: Number of Foreign Tourists Visiting Indonesia ),” vol. 11, 2020.
[9] YA Jatmiko, RL Rahayu, and G. Darmawan, "Comparison of the Accuracy of Forecasting Results of Shallot Production with the Holt-Winters Method Using Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)," J. Matt. "LOGIC,"vol. 3, no. 1, p. 13, 2017, doi: 10.15642/mantik.2017.3.1.13-24.
[10] E. Smoothing, "Application of Double Exponential Smoothing Holt and Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter with Golden Section Optimization to Forecast Export Value of East Borneo Province," vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 475–483, 2022, doi: 10.20956/j.v18i3.17492.
[11] M. Masniar and IF Said, "ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON THE DEMAND AMOUNT FOR 2M TEA PRODUCTS (Case Study: CV. Harum Manis Sorong),” Method. J. Tech. Eng., vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 8–14, 2019, doi: 10.33506/mt.v5i1.1516.
[12] L. Maysofa, KU Syaliman, and Sapriadi, "Implementation of Forecasting on Inaura Hair Care Sales Using the Single Exponential Smoothing Method," J. Test. and System Implementation. Inf., vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 82–91, 2023.
[13] H. Rofiq, KC Pelangi, and Y. Lasena, “Application of Data Mining to DetermineDaily Rain Potential Using the Naive Bayes Algorithm," J. Manaj. Inform. and Sis. Inf., vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 8–15, 2020, [Online]. Available: http://mahasiswa.dinus.ac.id/docs/sistik/jurnal/19417.pdf